Briefing Note: Three Basins Multi Threats to Southeast Asia

October 21, 2023


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Introduction:  

Fossil fuel and mining expansion is an urgent threat that will harm climate stability, the integrity of the world’s most vital ecosystems, and the Indigenous and local communities who call these regions home.

The vital forests and riverine ecosystems of the BorneoMekong Southeast Asian basins are natural and cultural wonders that are critical for the maintenance of biodiversity and climate stability. Their preservation is essential for Indigenous and local communities who call them home and for the future of humanity. The first cut is the deepest, and the expansion of fossil fuel, mining and other industrial activities have the potential to initiate a cascade of deforestation and forest degradation that follow. Without a halt to extractive activities in intact areas – and adequate protection and enforcement, the remaining forests and the Indigenous and local communities that depend on them will continue to be severely impacted. Tropical forest basins risk systemic ecosystem breakdown, and as climates warm, feedback loops get triggered, and entire canopies die off. Amazonia is already in the midst of a tipping point crisis, and in the Congo Basin, the world’s second largest rainforest, a similar tipping point threshold near 25% deforestation and high degradation has also been modeled where it may no longer support rainforest ecosystems and services if that threshold is passed.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that in order to limit global warming to within the threshold of 1.5 C, no further fossil fuel expansion must take place. However, the Production Gap Report 2023 has found that governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. In a similar vein, the newly launched UNFCCC NDC Synthesis Report 2023 shows that national climate action plans remain insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. An early look at the findings from the first-ever global stocktake indicates that the world is not on track to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. As UN member states negotiate their response to the stocktake’s findings, it is important to underscore the critical need for a moratorium on the expansion of fossil fuel and other industrial activities in primary and priority forests in these regions and globally in order to create space for financial solutions (like debt relief, subsidy redirection, payments for ecosystem services, and other financial system innovations) to be established to preserve these global treasures, meet development needs and secure climate stability.

Lorentz National Park in Indonesia

Lorentz National Park in Indonesia is home to various bird species, including the rare bird of paradise. 

Image credit: Courtesy of Ufhii22 via Wikimedia Commons(CCBY-SA4.0)

Imminent threats: Key facts

New mapping and analysis shows that:

• Nearly 20% of intact tropical forests in the three basins are now in active and potential oil and gas concessions.

• Nearly 25% of intact tropical forests in the Amazon and Congo basins are now in active or potential mining concessions.

• In Indonesia, nearly half of all nickel concessions, a major source for the EV industry, overlap with natural forests.

• Over 200 million people, including a significant proportion of Indigenous and local communities, or about 20% of the population in the three basin regions, live within oil and gas blocks.


Oil and Gas Expansion Threats In Southeast Asia:

  • More than 34.8 million hectares are in oil and gas production and exploration blocks.
  • In Indonesia, 88 million people (inclusive of a high degree of Indigenous and forest-based people) in more than 99,000 populated places (villages, communities, towns, etc.) now live in oil and gas blocks.

Southeast Asia Oil and Gas Threat Map

A map by Earth Insight

Mining Expansion Threats In Indonesia:

The world needs a just and sustainable transition to clean energy, but decarbonization calls for a massive increase in the mining and extraction of minerals such as nickel. In this quest, there is an urgent need to protect critical ecosystems from mining as well as ensure that energy transition mining is deforestation-free.

  • More than 3 million hectares of intact Tropical Moist Forests overlap with mining concessions.
  • More than 450,000 hectares of nickel mining concessions and permit areas for the energy transition, or more than half of concessions, overlap with natural forests.
  • Nickel deposits span more than 3 million hectares in Indonesia, and 2.5 million hectares of deposits overlap with natural forests – representing a massive risk of deforestation if nickel mining permits expand.
  • More than 3,000 populated places (villages, communities, towns, etc.) and 4.5 million people (inclusive of Indigenous and forest-based peoples) are located in mining concessions.

Indonesian Mining Threat Map

A map by Earth Insight

Pervasive disappearance of tropical moist forest across the world

An analysis of Landsat data from 1990-2019 found 218.7 million hectares of tropical moist forest disappeared, with a further 106.5 million hectares in a degraded state. It estimated that at least 45.4% of recent degradation will likely lead to deforestation in less than ten years. Global tropical primary forest loss in 2022 totaled 4.1 million hectares, the equivalent of 11 football fields of forest disappearing every minute.

In the Amazon Basin, some 26% of its area show signs of deforestation and high degradation; 20% have been irreversibly converted; and 6% are highly degraded. It is projected that at least 27% of intact rainforests in the Congo Basin present in 2020 face existential threats by 2050, if the rate of deforestation and forest degradation continues. Southeast Asia has lost forest area larger than Germany – 376,000 km, or nearly one-sixth of its forests, with mounting threats from fossil fuel, mining, agribusiness, forestry and other industrial expansion.

Protecting forests, advancing Indigenous and community rights, and averting tipping points:

Put simply, primary and intact forests must be preserved now before it is too late and the life-sustaining forest ecosystems of the three basins pass irreversible tipping points and further exacerbate the climate crisis.

The multitude of cascading industrial pressures and future threats explored in this briefing note reinforce the need for new, bold policies and financial mechanisms that are critical for global climate stability and to safeguard the forests of the three basins and the Indigenous and local communities who call them home. In a statement issued by a wide range of Indigenous, regional, and frontline organizations, heads of state from the three basins are being called upon to commit to the following:

  • Scale up rights-based on legal protection, demarcation and recognition of forest communities’ lands and territories, as a prerequisite to more effective forest protection.
  • Uphold communities’ right to fully and effectively participate in decision-making on any developments planned in these areas; respecting Indigenous peoples' right to free, prior and informed consent, as well as securing the protection of those living in voluntary isolation.
  • Empower and protect Indigenous peoples and other frontline environmental and human rights defenders by enhancing access to justice and providing strong legal protection for them.
  • Halt and reverse loss and degradation of all natural ecosystems from large-scale agriculture, mining, extractives and other industries, such as through a global moratorium on industrial activities in primary forests as well as priority forests and through provision of legal protections for remaining natural forests, including in concession areas.
  • Accelerate true, low-carbon development in tropical forest countries through a just energy transition, protecting natural forests and the rights and food sovereignty of local communities and Indigenous peoples.

Adopt time-bound and measurable goals towards these objectives, for transparency and accountability.

Solutions

Addressing sovereign debt: A problematic driver and a powerful solution

Sovereign debt has traditionally been a driver for exploitation of natural resources, disrupting ecosystems and hindering sustainable development. There are high debt numbers in high biocultural diverse regions such as in the Congo basin reaching approximately 40 billion US dollars.

Debt distress needs to be addressed through financial mechanisms, such as debt-for nature swamps, allowing for portions of debt to be forgiven, in return for making commitments to invest in the preservation of biodiversity. Conditioned debt forgiveness can leverage tens of billions in debt repayments as a mechanism to advance protection for some of the world’s most intact and vulnerable ecosystems. With international momentum building for a transformation of the global financial system to support nature protection, there is a critical window in time to leverage existing financial resources in play in the form of debt as a tool for keeping fossil fuels in the ground and advancing expanded protection for nature and the rights of Indigenous peoples and local communities.

Regional and global awareness and momentum is building; and bold action is critical. A range of solutions and frameworks are referenced below that embody the need for both measured and accelerated action:

Additional Data

Several recent reports underscore the global need to end oil and gas expansion – especially in these and other critical forest basins and ecosystems:
October 21, 2023